Here's my alternate history of a timeline where the war goes the different direction. But first, here's a scenario which would have changed the outcome
During the war, sapnap, dream's old friend, makes it up onto the obsidian grid, followed by 2 others. As dream chases him, they run around and dismantles the entire system. In a fit of rage, dream then blindly chases him, and gets stuck in a battle with 3 other people. Amidst the chaos, Techno is too distracted by being in the middle of a huge battle, and Philza is trying his best to stay out of sight of both the withers and the L'manberg army. Dream gets killed, and the TNT dispensers don't go off, leaving everything under the surface intact. With one less person to worry about, someone notices the Lmantree burning just in time to stop it. Niki gets caught and after the battle, is imprisoned. With the battle drawing on for longer, Techno slowly begins to tire and get overwhelmed. He tells philza that they need to leave because "i don't think we can win this time". As they flee, phil almost gets killed. Techno comes in to help, and allows him to flee safely, but techno doesn't make it out. The war is won, and L'manberg survives.
That's how they win. But what would happen in the aftermath?
Dream goes into hiding, somewhere far out into the distance. Techno's whole view changes, as he is no longer the blood god, and he can in fact die. Both of them live as much more fearful people, rather than being the feared beings of destruction they were seen as before. One day, dream gets caught out far east of snowchester even further than Techno's cabin, as the butcher army searched day and night for the both of them. The syndicate is never formed, and both dream and techno get put into prison together. There is no stasis pearl, and they are both stuck.
L'manberg, after being through 3 wars becomes a heavily militarised colony, building massive walls and heavy fortifications along its entire larger border. They will never again have to suffer through a war. In prison, there is now fundy, nikki, dream, and techno, the 2 latter being in the maximum security cell together. When the eggpire rises, the paranoid L'manberg is far more aggressive towards them, and within a couple weeks, storm into the lair and attempt to destroy it. While it does survive, it is in a far worse state, and is very weak. This leads them to become part of the badlands for support, and bringing tension between them and L'manberg.
Tommy still visits dream, and still gets stuck. However this time, Techno, still bitter about his double betrayal, is the one who ends up killing him, taking his last canon life. Dream tries to revive him, but Techno stops him, saying "You have no idea what he's done to me, he's used me as his own weapon twice. I cannot let that happen a third time. You can't bring him back, you hear me?" giving enough time for ghost tommy to manifest himself, as weeping spirit, constantly crying blue tears, and always being terrified. Ghostbur tries to bond with him, but his fear pushes him away. He seeks to find Tubbo, his old friend, but instead, finds a broken mess, always grieving over the loss of his only friend. Tommy, also feels like he's lost tubbo.
Phil, now alone, decides that he must free Techno. "You are my only friend, and if I can't live with him, then I can't live. I will break you out of there, my brother, even if it means my death." With Nikki and Fundy's prison sentences ending, he goes to them for help. And instead of forming the syndicate, they form their own commune where snowchester would have been. This gets them within sight of the prison, allowing them to closely monitor all of its outer workings, and find a way in. This continues on until they hear a knock on their door. "Father? Are you in here?" Phil recognises the voice as none other than Wilbur. Phil is happy to see his son again, and knowing how smart he is, adds him to the team to figure a way to break techno out of prison.
(unconnected to the main lore): Wilbur walks along the prime path, and sees the great black and yellow walls up once again. Tears slowly roll off his face as he looks up to them and says "L'manberg, my finished symphony. My corrupted complete symphony." Mixed emotions fill up his head, as his creation L'manberg is alove and stronger than ever, with the walls built greater and stronger, yet it is not the old L'manberg, his L'manberg. It is a cheap imitation, and a corrupted version which he both loves greatly and despises deeply. Looking up to the walls, he sees ghost tommy looking down at him, before running away out into the wilderness.
In the present day, L'manburg is more powerful than it ever was, and becomes a dominant force on the SMP. The greater dream SMP is weak and fractured, and the badlands are a rising power. Tommy never gets revived. Wilbur attempt to befriend Tommy, who is most fearful of him, and constantly runs away. Techno and dream are still in prison, but instead of getting closer, they push themselves apart over arguing with tommy.
That's the end. All in all, this timeline is much more depressing than the one we're in now. But i thought it would be interesting to theorise. What do you think of it?